The Office of National Statistics (ONS) released its monthly mortality analysis for December 2022, and the results paint a concerning picture for the state of mortality in England.
Veena Raleigh, Senior Fellow at The King’s Fund, commented on the analysis, stating that while the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for England in 2022 was lower than in most years since 2001, with the exception of 2019 and 2014, this should not lead to complacency.
The ONS analysis shows that the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for England in December 2022 was lower than in most years since 2001, with the exception of 2019 and 2014. However, it is important to note that ONS also notes that, because mortality rates take into account changes in population size and age structure, excess mortality rates can be lower than excess deaths. For example, in England, in December 2022, excess deaths were 13.5% above the previous average, while the excess mortality rate was 5.8% above average. And in 2022 overall, deaths were 6.3% above average, whereas the ASMR was 0.7% below average.
Despite these lower than average figures, Raleigh warns that they should not lead to complacency. Mortality in 2022 should have fallen sharply after the heavy loss of life from Covid-19 in 2020 and 2021. Instead, it remains higher than in some pre-pandemic years, including 2019, the most recent. Moreover, since May 2022 the monthly ASMR has in fact been higher than the pre-pandemic average – a trend that shows no sign of abating. The outlook is therefore not promising.
Raleigh suggests that halting and reversing this trend requires contributory drivers such as unmet health care needs during the pandemic and unprecedented pressures on NHS (especially emergency) services to be addressed urgently. ONS’s analysis shows that the major causes of excess mortality were ill-defined conditions (reflecting mainly deaths in frail, older people), including in deaths from Covid-19, and some cardiovascular diseases. Vaccination programmes should remain a priority as Covid-19 continues its relentless march, along with flu and pneumonia in recent weeks.
Most European countries have also experienced excess deaths during 2022. However, a recent ONS analysis showed that mortality in the UK during the pandemic was higher than in many western European countries. This follows a pre-pandemic decade during which the UK’s life expectancy compared poorly with European peers, and also showed the least improvement. Taken together with the worrying trends in mortality data for 2022, this suggests that the UK could slide further down the life expectancy league table for peers.
In conclusion, the ONS mortality analysis for December 2022 paints a concerning picture for the state of mortality in England. Despite lower than average figures, it is important not to become complacent and to address the contributory drivers that are leading to the high mortality rates. The outlook for the future is not promising and it is crucial that we take action to halt and reverse this trend.
Photo by National Cancer Institute on Unsplash
